While the real estate market has struggled across the board, new homes have been hit harder than ever before. Existing home sales are down about 3% in the last year, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors. That’s peanuts compared to new home sales, which have fallen a whopping 28%, according to the U.S. Census. To some extent, existing homes have always recovered before new construction, but analysts say this situation is so extreme that it could delay a meaningful recovery for the new-home market by two more years.
The reason for the discrepancy is clear, experts say: New homes are currently 29% more expensive than existing homes, about double the typical margin, according to the NAR. At the same time, there are some radical discounts in the existing home market, foreclosures and short sales specifically, which accounted for nearly 40% of all sales in February. (In 2010, they accounted for 25% of all sales, according to RealtyTrac.com.)
But a shift in consumer psychology has also hurt new home sales. Pre-recession, buyers expected high-end appliances and fancy countertops, and builders delivered. Now consumers are more enthusiastic about a home that’s easier and cheaper to maintain, says Vogel. For many buyers, that even includes smaller rooms – a rarity in homes built during the real estate boom – that are more affordable to heat or cool. More buyers are also looking to live in or near a city – where relatively fewer new homes exist – to be closer to their job and to spend less on gasoline costs.
The trend doesn’t seem to be reversing itself any time soon. In spite of the lagging sales, new home prices are still expected to rise by nearly 1% this year, according to the NAR: Builders have all but stopped building, says David Crowe, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, and supply is dwindling.