Archive

For July, 2011

Bank of America对付法拍屋的新办法:推土机

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http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/2015759069_homeglut31.html

截至6月份为止,至少有1.7 million的房屋处于法律拍卖过程中。上个月,Bank of America在Detroit和Chicago分别推倒了100个和150个房屋。BOA还计划在另外10个城市中执行同样的计划。

加入BOA行列的还有Wells Fargo和Fannie Mae。自2009年开始,Wells Fargo捐赠或推倒了至少800多个房屋。2010年,Fannie Mae捐赠或推倒了200个。

随着房价下跌,房屋估价可能致使交易流产

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http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/2015759098_realappraisals31.html

Alan Wilson签了一个$319,500的买房合同,但估价师的估价只有$292,000。由于卖主不愿降低价格,致使交易流产。
据National Association of Realtors报告显示,去年有10%至12%的买卖交易中出现估价低于卖价的情况,致使交易延迟甚至取消。

No closing cost的误区(一):从自住房转到出租房

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很多房主一生当中都会买几次住房,直到有一天住进她自己的dream house。一般来说,房主的第一个房子面积都会偏小。当她搬完新家后,原来的小房子不是被卖掉就是被转换成投资房。今天所谈的no closing cost误区之一就是针对这种投资房的贷款。

先看这个例子,罗在2000年花了28万买了第一个自住房。2004年上半年,罗在知道自己不久之后即将搬到3000呎的新房之前,所做的明智之举是为当时还是自住房的小房子做了次重新贷款:$200K, 15年固定, Rate=5.0%,no closing cost。罗的不明智之处是他为了省几千块钱的closing cost,而没有把利率做成4.5%。搬家之后,罗把小房子出租,变成了投资房。

利率从去年到今年一直在低点徘徊,15年的固定利率早就降到了4%以下,罗也询问了自己的出租房能否拿到较低的重贷利率。20万的贷款如今只剩下13万左右,因为投资房的cost及rate要比自住房高出很多,再加上loan amount 太少,如果他做no closing cost 的refinance的话, 利率在4.5%左右而不是4%以下。一年只省几百块的利息,却又变成15年后才能还清,罗觉得不值,于是就此打消了为投资房做重贷的念头。

现在,我们来分析一下。假设罗在2004年时愿意付$4,000作为closing cost从而选择了4.5%而不是5.0%的利率的话,那么他在当时有两种选择:第一种选择是在closing时自己就付掉这$4,000 cost;第二种选择是把这$4,000的 closing cost打到贷款总额中去。让我们通过下面的table来看看savings的结果:

Present Plan-1 Plan-2
Loan Amount $200,000 $200,000 $204,000
Interest Rate 5.0% 4.5% 4.5%
Closing Cost 0 $4,000 $0
Total Interest $84,685 $75,397 $76,905
Savings $0 $5,288 $3,780

从table来中可以得出,无论是哪种选择,都比罗当初的5.0%的n0 closing cost的利率要省钱。

  • Plan-1: $84,685 – $75,397 – $4,000 = $5,288
  • Plan-2: $84,685 – $76,905 – $4,000 = $3,780

所以,在你决定做重新贷款时,请仔细考虑是不是不久的将来,自己将面临和罗一样的情形,要将现在的自住房变成投资房,然后再做出明智的选择。

重新贷款:还有哪些产品可供选择?

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大部分的人只知道贷款的program有30年、15年、5/1 ARM,所以他/她们在做重贷时,禁锢在这些产品当中,因而失去低利率及多产品带来的实惠。

比如说你当前的贷款是30年的,5年前做的,现在的低利率对你确实有很大的吸引力。如果你只对固定利率感兴趣,但又觉得15年的负担会太重;又不想再重做30年的贷款,因为觉得又要重付银行30年利息,即便利率减少了,也不见得有多划算。

实际上,固定利率的program还有25年、20年和10年的。25年和20年的利率通常会比30年的低,10年的要比15年的低。所以,如果你的30年贷款已经还了5年,在重新贷款时,你不妨选择25年或20年的产品,这样既不会延长你的还贷时间,还可享受到更低利率带来的好处。

因为有了25年、20年和10年这些贷款产品的存在,增加了选择产品上的灵活性。让你既可享受到低利率带来的实惠,又不会延长还清贷款的时间。

六月份的成屋签约量持续第二个月成长

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Contracts-to-buy-homes-rose-apf-2550932798.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43926826?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cother%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo

据National Association of Realtors报告显示,六月份的成屋签约量持续第二个月成长,成长幅度为2.4%。五月份的成长率高达8.2%。当然,这样的成长还不足以标志着市场的恢复。

但是报告同时也显示,越来越多的买主在房屋检查以后取消了合同。合同取消率高达16%,远高于正常水平的4%。

六月份,1.7million房屋进入了法拍程序

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据RealtyTrac的报告显示,六月份全美有1.7 million个房屋进入了法律拍卖的程序。如果将所有的法拍屋加起来,总数超过了6百万。与此相比,六月份的新房供应量只有16万。大量的法拍屋一直在给市场托后腿,致使房价下跌。

本周固定利率几乎没有变化

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本周的30年利率从上周的4.52%略微上涨到4.55%,比年度最低点4.49%稍稍高了一点。

15年利率本周是3.66%,只比年度最低的3.65%高出了0.01%。

详细历史数据请看:http://lowerloan.net/?page_id=26

美国梦不再有?

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http://www.bankrate.com/financing/mortgages/death-of-the-american-dream/

拥有一套属于自己的房屋曾几何时是多少人的美国梦,多少人视之为成功的标志。现在这个美国梦正在迅速褪色。据Morgan Stanley的报导,全美房屋拥有率跌到了59.7%,是Census Bureau 1965年有纪录以来的最低点。

拜银行的宽松货币政策所赐,全美房屋拥有率在2004年达到了最高峰的69%,那时的房屋价格也是节节攀升。但是现在,银行缩紧借贷标准,法拍屋泛滥,拖欠贷款盛行。这些现象正在逐渐地将我们身边的社会改变成一个一个的租赁者,而不再是骄傲的美国梦的实现者。

但是,美国的房地产市场是一个周期性的市场,坏日子迟早会过去。如果我们能吸取教训,变得更有责任心,养成良好的借贷习惯,长远而言,对经济将更有助益。我们对此应该有信心,因为即使是今天,在7千6百万的房主当中,3分之1的家庭没有任何房贷!

大宅好卖,大额贷款又回来了

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Big-Mortgages-Are-wallstreet-1344265843.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

Low interest rates are driving high-end home buyers to supersized mortgages at a pace unseen since the housing boom.

So called jumbo loans—generally those bigger than $417,000—are a better bargain now than they have been in years. The average rate on a 30-year jumbo mortgage is 5.15%, down from 6.41% two years ago. That means the monthly payment on a 30-year $600,000 home loan is now about $3,280, some $480 less than the cost of the same loan two years ago, for an annual savings of nearly $5,800.

Jumbo loans cheap relative to historical rates. The difference between the rates on a jumbo mortgage and a conforming loan is just 0.43 percentage point, the narrowest spread since 2007.

Jumbo loans accounted for almost one in every six new mortgages, including new-home purchases and refinances, in the first quarter of 2011, according to Inside Mortgage Finance.

S&P: 西雅图五月份房价上扬1.1%

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根据S&P/Case-Shiller今天刚刚出炉的20个城市房价跟踪数据显示,西雅图五月份比四月份房价,非季节性调整上涨1.1%,季节性调整后则上涨0.3%。但是,与一年前相比,仍然下跌,幅度达7.0%。

非季节性调整的数据还显示,全国范围内除了Detroit和Tampa以外,所有其他城市均有不同幅度的上涨,但是经过季节性调整后,则只有一半左右的城市略有上涨。与去年同期相比,除Washington D.C.以外的所有其他城市,房价均有所下跌。

六月份全美新房销售下跌1%,但价格大幅上涨5.8%

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http://www.cnbc.com/id/43894358?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cother%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo

New U.S. single-family home sales unexpectedly fell in June, but a sharp rise in prices and declining supply suggested the market for new houses was starting to stabilize, a government report showed on Tuesday.

The Commerce Department said sales fell 1 percent to a seasonally adjusted 312,000-unit annual rate, as sales in the Northeast tumbled to a record low. Sales were also pulled down by a sharp drop in the West.

There were a record low 164,000 new homes available for sale in June. That compares to about 3.77 million used homes on the market in June, plus properties that are in foreclosure.

The scarcity of new homes is encouraging builders to break ground on new projects. Data last week showed housing starts rose to a six-month high in June.

The Commerce Department report showed the median sales price for a new home increased 5.8 percent last month to $235,200. Compared to June last year, the median price rose 7.2 percent. The rise in prices is the latest hopeful sign that home values are starting to stabilize.

Data last week showed the median price of an existing home increased 0.8 percent to $184,300 from June last year.

At June’s sales pace, the supply of new homes on the market fell to 6.3 months’ worth, the lowest since April 2010, from 6.4 months’ worth in May.

NAR六月份西部地区个屋房价示意图

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本周NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS发布了六月份的个屋销售数据。包括Washington州的西部地区,季节调整后与上个月比较,下跌了1.9%。与一年前相比,也同样下跌了1.9%。如果不经过季节调整,则比上月上涨8.8%,比去年同期则下跌1.8%。

在个屋的房价方面,如果以房屋中间价计量,六月份的价格为$245,800,比上月上涨15.3%,比去年同期上涨8.7%。如果以房屋平均价计量,六月份的价格为$297,700,比上月上涨12.8%,比去年同期上涨8.6%。

拖欠贷款的人数持续减少

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与目前低麋的房屋市场及蹒跚而行的经济复苏相反的是:不管是1st mortgage 还是 2nd mortgage的拖欠贷款率持续下降。1st mortgages从2009年5月高峰期时的5.67%降到今年6月的2.09%; 2nd mortgages则从2个月前高峰期时的4.66% 下降到1.42%。这种下滑率在美国各地有所不同。那些受房地产泡沫打击大的城市(例如 Miami), 拖欠贷款率持续高位不下。

即使目前下滑的拖欠贷款率仍高于2004-2006 的水平. 但仍是房屋市场好转的一个信号。

不到一半的屋主认为自己的房价超过贷款

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/under-half-say-house-worth-more-than-mortgage-2011-07-21?siteid=yhoof2

Only 49% of respondents say their home is worth more than their mortgage, according to a July survey of homeowners conducted by the polling firm Rasmussen Reports. That’s the first time the number believing they had equity in their home was below 50% for two months in a row, though above June’s reading of 45%. In December 2008, 61% believed their home was worth more than their mortgage.

FHFA:五月份全美房价上涨0.4%

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-house-prices-climb-04-in-may-fhfa-says-2011-07-21?siteid=yhoof2

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. house prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in May, marking the second straight increase, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said Thursday. Prices for April were revised down to a 0.2% increase from an original reading of a 0.8% gain. In the past 12 months, prices have fallen 6.3%, and they are down 19.6% from an April 2007 peak. In May, prices rose the most in the Mountain region, up 2.0%. The steepest decline occurred in the West South Central part of the U.S. – Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma – where prices fell 1.0%. FHFA data is based on sales information compiled by the large mortgage firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

本周利率继续在年度最低点徘徊

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根据Freddiemac的全国每周平均利率统计,与上周相比,30年固定利率上涨了0.1%,达到4.52%,只比年度最低的4.49%多出了0.03%。15年利率也从上周的3.65%略微上涨到3.66%。上周的3.65%创造了年度最低的纪录,与历史最低纪录3.57%已经非常接近。

具体历史数据,请参照:http://lowerloan.net/?page_id=26

面对自己的房屋价格,homeowner拒绝接受现实

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Homeowners-in-Denial-About-nytimes-2586795538.html?x=0

根据Zillow的研究报告显示,2007年以后购房的屋主,在挂牌求售自己的住房时,要价比平均值多出了(overpricing)14%。

泡沫以前购房的屋主在制定自己的求售价格时,虽然也overprice,但是没有那么高。2002年以前购房的屋主定价,平均overprice了12%。2002-2206年之间购房的屋主定价,平均overprice了9%。

六月份成屋销售量下跌,创13年来的新低

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Home-sales-fell-in-June-fewer-apf-154260181.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

据National Association of Realtors星期三的数据显示,6月份的成屋销售跌了0.8%。今年上半年的seasonally adjusted annual rate是4.77 million,低于去年同时期的4.91 million,是自1998年以来的最低点。

取消购房合同(canceling Purchase and Sale Agreement)的数量达到了创纪录的16%,部分原因是appraisal出来的房屋价格低于buyer当初的竞价。

First-time homebuyers占了销售量的31%,远低于正常水平的50%。

成屋价格比新屋价格低了30%,使得成屋极具竞争力。正常情况下,两者的价差不超过15%。

大多数的经济学家预估今年房价会继续走低至少5%,有的甚至预期一直到2013年房价才有可能反弹。

Seattle的办公楼闲置率预期将要下跌

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http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2015653199_office19.html

Two brokerages reported vacancies fell slightly last quarter. A third said the rate rose a tick.

But that brokerage — Cushman & Wakefield/Commerce — said the increase was more a statistical blip than evidence of a trend.

Each brokerage calculates vacancies differently. Colliers International, whose statistics reflect buildings in greater downtown and North Seattle, pegged the rate at 17.53 percent, down from 17.83 percent in the first quarter.

Kidder Mathews — which calculates the vacancy rate for the entire city and includes owner-occupied buildings as well as for-lease space — put the rate at 13.46 percent in June, compared with 13.92 percent in March.

Cushman, which looks only at buildings with space for lease in greater downtown, said the second-quarter rate was 20.2 percent, up from 19.8 percent three months earlier.

Mature technology companies and startups are growing and driving demand, said Dan Dahl, a Colliers senior vice president.

The average asking rental rate for Class A office space last quarter in greater downtown was $31.26 per square foot per year, Cushman & Wakefield/Commerce said, the highest in two years.

六月份新房动工率大幅成长

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Home-building-spikes-in-June-apf-2439450214.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

The Commerce Department said Tuesday that builders began work on a seasonally adjusted 629,000 homes last month, a 14.6% increase from May.

Still, that’s roughly half the 1.2 million homes per year that economists say must be built to sustain a healthy housing market.

Much of the increase in June came from a surge in apartment construction, a volatile part of the industry. That sector jumped more than 30% last month.

Renting has become a preferred option for many Americans who lost their jobs during the recession and were forced to leave their rapidly depreciating homes. Since 1992, apartments have typically made up just 20 percent of home construction. Now, they make up closer to 30% of the market.

Single-family home construction rose 9.4%. It was the biggest increase since June 2009, when the recession officially ended.

Building permits, a gauge of future construction, increased 2.5% .

Home construction rose in every part of the country. In the West, it increased 5.4%.

US builders’ outlook rises after hitting 2011 low

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-builders-outlook-rises-apf-3803215406.html?x=0

WASHINGTON (AP) — The outlook among U.S. homebuilders became a bit rosier in June but the future prospects for home construction are anything but promising.

The National Association of Home Builders says an index of builders’ outlook for their industry in June rose two points, to 15. Any reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment about the housing market. The index hasn’t reached 50 since April 2006, the peak of the housing boom.

Last year, the number of people who bought new homes hit its lowest level on records dating back nearly a half-century. This year could be just as bad.

No closing cost的来龙去脉

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一般借贷人shopping房屋贷款利率时,从bank里能拿到的只是retail的利率。就好比当您走进一家retail商店shopping时,买到的都是零售价的商品。

而mortgage broker 从银行手中拿到的则是wholesale的利率。和银行一样,mortgage broker 给您做贷款时,也会向客户收取费用,这笔费用叫broker origination费。如果客户想拿到wholesale的利率的话,就要支付这笔broker origination费用,再加上银行的underwriting fee及其他各项贷款费用,这些费用综合起来,就是通常所说的closing cost。

为了鼓励broker把wholesale的利率卖给客户,银行通常都会配以很高的credit给这些wholesale的利率。Broker把除去自身费用的剩余部分都反馈给了客户。当您的利率达到了一定的高位时,credit足以用来支付broker,银行及其他的各项贷款费用时,您的贷款利率就成了no closing cost。换而言之,the closing costs 被银行全部承担下来。

No closing cost对很多人来说很有吸引力,因为它所省下来的费用是立竿见影的,因此在心理上形成了巨大的优势。但是它是以较高的利率作为代价的。如果一味的推崇no closing cost,而不加以冷静的分析,对很多客户而言不仅不省钱,而且有可能损失的更多。

接下来我将会再写几篇文章来分析no closing cost贷款方案的好坏,敬请各位到时阅读。

2011上半年foreclosure数量减少

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Foreclosure-activity-slowed-apf-291918347.html?x=0

The number of homes taken back by lenders in the first half of this year fell 30 percent compared with the same 2010 period, the result of delays in foreclosure processing. Banks seized 421,212 homes in the first six months of the year.

The decline reflects lenders taking longer to move against homeowners who have fallen behind on their mortgage payments.

As the processing delays mount, however, so has the backlog of potential foreclosures — homes that otherwise would have been repossessed by lenders this year.

RealtyTrac estimates that 1 million foreclosure-related notices that should have been filed by banks this year will be pushed to next year. The filings include notices for defaults, scheduled home auctions and home repossessions — warnings that can lead to a home eventually being lost to foreclosure.

In all, some 1.2 million U.S. homes received a foreclosure-related notice in the first six months of this year, RealtyTrac said. That’s down 29 percent from the same period last year. Put another way, one in every 111 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing between January and June.

Between April and June, it took an average of 318 days for a home to go from the first stage of foreclosure to the point where it was sold at auction or taken back by the lender. The foreclosure process took longest to play out in New York at an average of 966 days, or 2.6 years, during the second quarter. New Jersey was second-slowest at an average of 944 days. In Texas, it only takes an average of 92 days to go through the process, the fastest turnaround time in the nation.

Nevada continued to lead the nation, with one in every 21 households receiving a foreclosure notice in the first half of this year.

Rounding out the top 10 states with the highest foreclosure rate in the first half of this year are Arizona, California, Utah, Georgia, Idaho, Michigan, Florida, Colorado and Illinois.

15年固定利率创造年度最低点,直逼历史最低

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本周利率实现大反转,从一周前的向上涨迅速变成了向下落。尤其是15年的固定利率,更是创造出了2011年度最低利率3.65%(根据Freddiemac的全国每周平均利率统计),已经相当接近2010年的历史最低利率3.57%。

详细历史数据请看:http://lowerloan.net/?page_id=26

Eastside六月份房屋成交(中间)价格表

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East Side

成交量

房屋中间价
2011
年六月

房屋中间价
2011
年五月

涨跌幅度

East Side – South of I-90

81

$530,000

$585,000

-9,40%

Mercer Island

30

$880,975

$718,000

22.70%

Bellevue – West of 405

48

$1,037,500

$649,995

59.62%

Bellevue – East of 405

50

$433,750

$404,562

7.21%

E. of Lake Sammamish

152

$509,500

$475,000

7.26%

Redmond

49

$429,000

$526,000

-18.44%

Kirkland

66

$604,000

$527,500

14.50%

Juanita, Woodinville

147

$378,800

$377,612

0.31%

East Side

623

$510,000

$493,990

3.24%

从10月1日开始,Bigger Mortgages将支出更多

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http://www.bankrate.com/finance/mortgages/bigger-mortgages-will-cost-more-1.aspx

美国房屋贷款中,目前普遍流行的Super Conforming Loan(又称为Jumbo Conforming Loan 或者 High-cost area Conforming Loan)的loan limits将从10月1日起调低。因为眼下这种贷款的Loan limits将在今年的9月30日到期。为了避免较高的支出及较少的产品选择,建议借贷人,不管是做新贷款还是做Refinance,应该在8月中就开始申请贷款,以确保有充足的时间在10月1日之前申请下贷款。

调低loan limits意味着有larger mortgage - jumbo loan的借贷人将会支出更多:不仅需要支付更多的头期款,而且相应的利息也比一般的高出大约 0.5%至 1%;同时,要qualify做larger mortgage的借贷人还要面对更加紧缩的银行guidelines。

目前的Super Conforming这种贷款的loan limits要高于两房Fannie/Freddie及FHA的Standard Conforming loan limits (贷款额<=$417,000) 。大西雅图地区(Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue )的King, Pierce, Snohomish Counties目前的Super Conforming loan limit是<= $567,500。

新Conforming loan limits:

• 美国的大多数counties的conforming loan limits是$417,000

• 美国有206个high-cost housing的郡县loan limits 相对要高些。一些房价比较高的Counties的loan limits 将会从$729,750调低至$625,500或者更低,例如Los Angeles 及 New York City。其他的counties的loan limits也将会调低在$417,000 和 $625,500之间。Federal regulators目前还没有释出county-by-county的具体数字。

• 其结果,一些借贷人将不再符合Conforming loan,也许只好以larger mortgage – jumbo loan代替。

联邦政府计划帮助失业者避免foreclosure

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http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2015541011_joblesshomeowner08.html

The Obama administration on Thursday unveiled an initiative aimed at helping unemployed homeowners remain in their homes while they seek work and try to stave off foreclosure.

Starting Aug. 1, the Federal Housing Administration will extend the period for unemployed homeowners to miss mortgage payments to a full year from three or four months. That will allow qualified homeowners to go without making a monthly payment for 12 months before the foreclosure process begins. 

The extended grace period applies only to FHA loans, which are usually given to low- and middle-income borrowers. The grace period also applies to homeowners in the government’s Home Affordable Modification Program.

The administration officials hope private lenders, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac will adopt a similar policy.

30年平均贷款利率升至4.60%

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根据Freddiemac的每周平均利率统计,经过长达一个月的停留在年度最低利率以后,本周的平均贷款利率结束了在低端的徘徊,

30年平均固定贷款利率直接从上周的4.51%飙升至4.60%。一个月以前的本年度最低平均利率是4.49%。

15年的平均利率也从上周的3.69%升至3.75%。

5年平均浮动利率从上周的3.22%升至3.30%。事实上,有些Lender可以做到2.xx%的浮动利率已有几个月的时间,不少Borrower做了Refinance把握住了这次的低浮动利率。

Rates history: http://lowerloan.net/?page_id=26

6月份本地房价继续下滑,但市场可能正在回稳

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http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2015528236_homeprices07.html

According to NMLS, buyers closed on 1,884 houses in King County in June, a slight increase over the same month last year. The median home price fell nearly 10% from a year ago, to $345,000, but was unchanged from May.

Pending sales have been fairly steady since March.

Though King County’s pending sales in June dipped from the previous month, they were up 32.3%, from 1,804 last year to 2,884. Pierce County saw a similar increase of 31.8%, while Snohomish County fared the best, with a spike of 50.2% over last year.

Pending condo sales in King, Snohomish and Pierce counties also showed a sharp year-over-year increase for the second month in a row.

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