For October, 2013

US home prices rise at fastest pace since 2006


U.S. home prices rose in August from a year earlier at the fastest pace since February 2006. But the price gains slowed in many cities from July, a sign that the spike in prices over the past year may have peaked.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 12.8% over the 12 months ending in August. That’s up from 12.4% in July from a year earlier. All 20 cities showed year-over-year gains (The Case-Shiller 20-city index covers roughly half of U.S. homes).

However, a measure of month-over-month prices for the 20 cities rose just 1.3% in August. That’s’ down from a 1.8% month-over-month gain in July. And 16 of the 20 cities reported more modest price increases in August than in July.

Prices in Las Vegas rose 29.2% from a year earlier, the fastest pace in the nation. But they are still 47% lower than they were before the housing market collapsed.

Prices in Denver and Dallas hit record levels in August. None of the other cities have returned to where they were before the real estate collapse.

Average home prices are only back to mid-2004 levels and 22% below their April 2006 peak.

And many of the cities are seeing their gains slow.

Prices in San Francisco increased 0.9% in August, down from a 2.2% monthly increase in July.

Despite rising for 26 straight months, prices in Detroit are still lower than they were in January 2000.

Contingent Macro Advisors economists Maninder Sibia and Steven Wood said housing inventory was only 83% of normal levels. They expect the supply to increase as rising prices encourage home owners to put their houses on the market.

Mortgage Loan Rates at Four-Month Lows


The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released its weekly report on mortgage applications last Wednesday morning, noting a decrease of 0.6% in the group’s seasonally adjusted composite index. Mortgage loan rates dropped across the board last weeks.

The average mortgage loan rate for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased from 4.46% to 4.39%. The rate for a jumbo 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell from 4.51% to 4.43%. The average interest rate for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell from 3.53% to 3.51%. All three loan types have fallen to their lowest levels since June.

The contract interest rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage loan remained unchanged at 3.25%.

详细历史记录请参看:Rates History

Housing Market Is Cooling And That’s Great News For Potential Bubbles: Zillow


U.S. housing prices rose 8.5% through August even as higher mortgage rates hurt demand. Though home prices continue to rise, real estate research from Zillow finds evidence the housing market is cooling. The pace of home value appreciation slowed in the third quarter to 1.2%, about half the pace of the second quarter of this year. And as Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow, tells — that’s “a pretty good thing.” Why?

“We have been wanting to see a little bit of moderation in the pace of home value gains because they’ve been rising at a very fast pace off the bottom. And in order to get back to a normal pace we need to start to see things moderate,” he tells us. “The normal pace in the housing market looks more like 3.5% [growth in values] a year, so in the past several months we’ve been rising at almost twice that pace.”

Zillow’s research also finds the larger decreases in home value appreciation came in markets that they’ve been watching as potential bubbles – including San Francisco, San Diego and Los Angeles. So is Humphries confident we’re staving off any bubbles at this point? He says yes.

Home affordability is also declining. A new report from finds it’s harder for a median-income household to afford a median-priced home in all of the country’s top 25 real estate markets this year compared to a year ago. That’s because home prices have risen close to 16% along with mortgage rates while income has not kept pace (income has risen by about 3%).

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